You Need to Look Behind The Economic Data

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A NUMBER of journalists and economic pundits seem to have been focussing solely upon the latest GDP figures.

However, the recent NAB monthly business survey appears to contradict concerns about the shaky household consumption sector – where the main concerns seem to relate to past issues.

Mainly things like … the end of the mining boom, resulting in a collapse of wage growth. [Read more…]

How Will Trump’s Win Affect Commercial Property?

Trump and Commercial Property

WHILE THE WORLD may be stunned by Donald Trump’s win, you’ll most likely find things will not be nearly as bad as everyone thinks.

And that’s reflected in the huge rebound in the stock market — once investors began studying his policies in more depth.

How did Trump achieve the Win?

In many respects, the media is responsible for the outcome — because so much airplay was given to his outlandish rhetoric. [Read more…]

Will Lower Oil Prices Mean Improved Economic Growth?

Oil-decline

THE ANSWER is both Yes and No … depending upon which country you live in.

Oil-GDPLast weekend’s Financial Review reported an analysis by Oxford Economics, which predicted the likely effect upon GDP during 2015-16 … of oil being at $US40 Vs. $US84 per barrel.

And a quick summary of that is included over on the right. [Read more…]

Commercial Property: State of The Nation

Office-Buildings

OFFICE VACANCY RATES have lept towards 15% in Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra, Adelaide and Perth. And this takes the national average to 12.4%, as an overall vacancy level.

However, businesses are now leasing space once again in both Sydney and Melbourne — where their vacancy rates are currently hovering around 10%, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. [Read more…]

How Does The Aussie Dollar Affect Commercial Property?

Aussie-Dollar

In simple terms, the answer is … both indirectly and indirectly.

The RBA’s Dilemma

General consensus is that our dollar should ideally be trading at around US85 cents. And that would provide a balance between encouraging non-resource export businesses, while not adding unwanted inflationary pressure.

The RBA could achieve this simply by lowering the official interest rate. However, that would then fuel even more local borrowing — especially within the residential property market. [Read more…]

A Growing Economy is Good For Commercial Property

Homemaker-Centre

HAVE YOU NOTICED how people are generally now acting in a far more positive manner. And that’s simply because they are starting to feel “wealthy” again. [Read more…]

Commercial Property Yields Firm As Activity Improves

Commecrial-Property-Investing

FURTHER EVIDENCE of an underlying strength in the Commercial property market is now provided by the latest IPD/Property Council index.

PCA-Cap-RtaesDuring 2013, you saw investors (both local and overseas) stride out from the shadows of the Global Financial Crisis. And as this graph confirms, every sector has displayed a healthy improvement in selling yields. [Read more…]

Surge in Confidence Bodes Well for Commercial Property

Commercial-Property-Confidence

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY stands to benefit from the recent improved business trading figures — which have soared to a 2-year high. And these now fall into line with the NAB Survey’s confidence levels.

As such, many forecasters believe these latest figures (together with the growth in house prices over the past 12 months) now reflect the underlying strength of Australia’s post-mining economy.

Therefore, further interest rate reductions expected by the RBA are unlikely to occur any time soon — if at all. [Read more…]

With Commercial Property … Balance Wins the Day

Sub-Lease-Space-L

THIS CHART APPEARED as part of a recent article in the Financial Review, by Mercedes Ruhl (30 October, page 41).

The article reassured investors that the anticipated short-term surge in sublease space (within Australia’s CBD Office markets) has simply not eventuated.

“Sublease space spikes at times when the economy is weak and business confidence is low because companies are restructuring and downsizing.”

Furthermore, the article suggests the overall amount of sublease space is expected to fall sharply over the next few months — following the post-election improvement in business confidence.

And of all the capital cities, the CBRE research shows Melbourne has provided the greatest improvement over the past year. [Read more…]

Commercial Property Investors are Relishing the Current Drift

Confusion
EVER SINCE Julia Gillard announced the September election in February … the ensuring political hiatus has meant almost everything (including our thinking) has simply been moving sideways.

Neither up, nor down … just drifting!

And that is completely understandable — because, when uncertainty reigns … people tend to do nothing.

What are the Experts saying? [Read more…]

Never Cross Collateralize Your Loan Arrangements

Cross-Collateralizing
Part 1: Don’t be easily Swayed by your Bank.

A COMMON piece of advice given by mortgage brokers to Commercial property investors — at least, by astute brokers — is to keep securities for each loan separate. In other words, any form of Cross Collaterization (as it’s known) is to be avoided at all costs.

So, just what is Cross Collaterization; and why is it so bad?

Put simply, it is the combining of one mortgage registered against two or more properties (or sometimes even your business) as security. [Read more…]