Recognise the Investment Opportunities …

Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers are cutting back on their spending around Australia. And it’s likely that luxury items and overseas travel will be the most affected.

The Flight to ValueA recent article in The Age expounded “The Flight to Value” — where Australian Property Monitors reported a 24% drop in the median price for Toorak Homes, in the 6 months to September.
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Some Answers in These Troubled Times

There are a couple of questions on the minds of Commercial Property Investors at the moment.

And they go something like this.
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Household Debt Addiction

In several previous postings, you’ll recall that I have raised the issue of Australia’s current blowout in household debt.

A recent article in the weekend Financial Review (pages 26-27) highlighted the current state of affairs.
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Trying to Make Sense of Things?

There has been much made of the poor US Retail Sales Data for December.

However, the figures were only down 0.4% on November. The most likely explanation being that some early Christmas shopping occurred November; and the increase in gift-card sales will not come through until early in 2008.

Clearly, the Sub-prime issues are having some effect. But, if you follow HS Dent at all — their view is that … “a short, mild recession is indeed likely, and we are arguably already in the middle of it.” (Update: Wednesday 16 January 2008).
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Retail Property Activity Continues

As the government spending and tax cuts add to consumer demand, you’ll see the Australian economy continue to grow strongly.
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The Rough and Tumble Marketplace

The recent stock market instability has been more related to investor panic, than to any logic or reason. And you’re not about to see a stock market collapse — which has now been confirmed by Monday’s rebound, following 0.5% rate reduction by the US Federal Reserve.
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What further action by the RBA?

The chances of any further rate rises (by the Reserve Bank of Australia) before the federal election have now diminished, following the recent evidence of wage growth having been contained.
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Family Finances are being Stretched

With house prices solid or rising everywhere except in Sydney, household debt is now almost out of control.

In the late 1980s and early 1990s, you saw the highly-geared Business sector collapse as interest rates rose. But now, you’re finding it is households with the high levels of debt.

In 1990, households had (on average) borrowed only 65% of their disposable income. By 2005, that figure had rocketed to 155% of their annual disposable income. And today, it stands at nearly 170%.
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