The underlying fundamentals for Australia are strong.
All that’s needed is a lift in the general confidence level, for our economy to really take off.
Therefore, the trick is … not to be caught by surprise when it does! [Read more…]
Be Prepared for Strong Growth in Commercial Property During 2012
22 November, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Will the RBA Cut Rates Again?
3 November, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Last week’s inflation figures were certainly much better than expected.
As such, there had been considerable political pressure placed on the RBA from by the government to cut interest rates this week.
Retailers were virtually pleading with the RBA to do so. Plus, homeowners were also looking for some relief in the run up to Christmas.
However, this is probably the last interest rate cut by the RBA for quite some time. To understand why, you need to cast your mind back to when the GFC began in 2008.
At the time, business investment was falling.
This is unlikely to occur from now on — because planned mining investment (at $430 billion) is three times greater than in 2008, representing about a third of Australian’s GDP.
And overall, Australia is said to have around $900 billion of business investment in the pipeline.
Furthermore, our main trading partner (China) is now far less dependent upon Western countries for its growth.
In 2008, China’s 12% per annum growth in GDP reflected a 3% to 4% component of exports to the West. While this year’s 9.5% growth in GDP was basically driven by domestic demand — with virtually no exports involved.
Overall, there is said to be around $900 billion of business investment in the pipeline. Add to that the improved stability of Australian banks, with their reduced offshore exposure and improved domestic deposits. Plus, an increase in the Tier 1 capital ratios.
Finally you also need to remember the RBA’s cash rate has now fallen from 7.25% in 2008 to its current level of 4.5% today.
Bottom Line: Apart from the current turmoil in Europe, Australia’s underlying fundamentals are solid. And these augur well for strong growth in Commercial property over the next 5 years.
To reduce interest rates any further would only serve to artificially inflate asset prices — rather than allow the market to grow organically … based upon genuine, sustainable demand.
The 9 Benefits You Can Gain …
From Investing in Commercial Property
27 October, 2011 by Leave a Comment
One of the main attractions of investing in Commercial Property is its security.
Unlike residential property … Commercial Property is generally still there performing for you, if the economy does slow down.
However, when the economy is strong, Commercial Property grows in value and provides you with a steady income.
Anyway, for those of you starting out … here’s a list of the benefits you’ll enjoy from successful Commercial property investing. [Read more…]
Commercial Property & The Economy
11 October, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Last week, to the IMF gave the Australian economy a positive report card — with a projected growth of 1.8% for 2011, and 3.3% for the ensuing 12 months.
Clearly there is international concern about the state of affairs within Europe and the US.
However, that belies the positive impact being provided by the rest of the world.
Although China’s growth is slowing, it still remains at a healthy 9% per annum; and India is not too far behind at 7.5% per annum.
When you add to that Latin America at 4%, and parts of Africa at close to 6% … you then start to see the northern Atlantic problems in some perspective. [Read more…]
Why the Slow Economic Recovery?
27 September, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Exactly why have industrial companies around the world been slow to recover? And why did everything look so promising … and then suddenly, seem to grind to a halt?
Perhaps some insight into this dilemma was provided by the IMF’s recent World Economic Outlook.
According to Oliver Blanchard (its chief economist), there are the dual influences of a slowdown in advanced Western economies; and the overall financial uncertainty.
During the GFC, companies allowed their inventories to run down. Then, with a hint of global recovery, those same companies began replacing their depleted inventory levels. [Read more…]
Commercial Property to Benefit as …
The Manufacturing Sector Declines
6 September, 2011 by Leave a Comment
According to BlueScope Steel … business, governments, industry associations and unions need to share responsibility for its recent decision to reduce (by 50%) Port Kembla’s production capacity.
However, this attempt to sheet home blame serves only to deflect attention from the more fundamental (and structural) changes occurring within the manufacturing sector as a whole.
Within his new book “The Next Convergence”, Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence makes some telling forecasts.
In his view … developing economies like China, India and Brazil (which house about 60% of the world’s population) will reach “advanced status” by 2050-60.
And the current problems facing the West — excess debt, over-consumption and poor banking practices — are not merely a cyclical aberration. [Read more…]
Why All The Panic?
16 August, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Are we really heading for GFC Mark II?
Well, not here in Australia anyway! And even overseas, things are vastly different this time around.
In 2008/09, it was private debt causing the problems … because nobody was too sure which banks were overly exposed to the sub-prime mortgage problem. [Read more…]
The Australian Office Scene
29 July, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Last Friday, I attended the annual Commercial & Industrial Economic Forecast Luncheon.
And Dr Frank Gelber (director of BIS Shrapnel) kindly provided is perspective on the Australian economy and the Melbourne Commercial property market — looking forward for the next 5 to 6 years.
Probably the most pleasing aspect was … that his views will were pretty much in line with what I’ve been telling you here, for the past six months or so … [Read more…]
Grasping the Nettle
14 July, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Last week’s article entitled: “OK … What’s Really Going On?” seemed to capture the interest of quite a few readers.
So, tell me … how many people have you spoken with lately, who are fearful about the European and US debt problems?
And have you stopped to find out how few of them realise that the problems confronting those countries may actually be GOOD news for Australia.
Perhaps it is worth explaining how that could possibly be — because there are several things you need to appreciate. [Read more…]
OK … What’s Going On?
7 July, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Last weekend in the Financial Review, Andrew Clark began his article (on page 52) with the words:
“Australians don’t know if they’re in the middle of a pause that refreshes or the dullness before the deluge.”
That about sums up the general feedback I am receiving at the moment, from clients and colleagues alike.
Clark felt this probably stems from a combination of …
- a lack of Federal leadership,
- declining retail turnover,
- poor flow-on from the mining boom and
- the spectre of financial defaults overseas.
Presumably, this was behind the RBA’s decision to keep the cash rate on hold until next month — pending more economic data in the coming weeks.
On the plus side …
According to the IMF … in spite of all the recent turmoil, the outlook for global economic growth appears quite rosy moving into the new financial year. [Read more…]
Making Sense of
The Mining Boom
31 May, 2011 by Leave a Comment
Size-wise, as a proportion of Australia’s economy … Manufacturing and Mining contribute more or less the same output.
However, Mining’s investment spend is currently more than three times that being spent by the Manufacturing sector.
All the media attention has mainly been focused upon this disparity. But that doesn’t really tell you the complete story — as you can see from the first of these graphs. [Read more…]
