Election Year Blues?

It’s not just rising interest rates that the Rudd government will have to contend with, in the run-up to the next election.

The joy of the resources boom restarting brings with it certain unwanted side effects. What you will start to see is wage rate increases; plus the drawing away of materials and equipment, from other sectors within our economy.

Our Exporters

Our Exporters


Furthermore, the stronger Australian dollar will bring increased hardship to our tourism and manufacturing industries — who exported goods and services internationally.

Not to mention, our local businesses … who are finding it harder and harder to compete with cheaper imports.

China

China

Clearly, Australia doesn’t want to miss out on the extraordinary growth occurring in both China and India.

However, the real test of the government will be in how it oversees the insatiable demand for labour and capital by the mining sector — while not starving the rest of the economy of these same key business imports.

With the voice of trade unions becoming louder, the temptation for Rudd is to resort to government subsidies. But sadly, it is often the most vocal (rather than the most deserving) who seemed to benefit from these type of handouts.

Maybe the preferred option would be to allow the “fittest” to survive; and thereby cause of Australia’s overall productivity to rise in the process?

But then, it is an election year!

Nonetheless, the continued stronger demand bodes well for Commercial property during 2010 and beyond.

Your Baby-Boomer Opportunity!

Whenever you go through a major structural change within society or the economy … opportunities will always emerge.

But you’ll find that Baby Boomers won’t be retiring — well, not in the conventional sense. Most will leave their long-time employment, to establish some type of small consultancy business.

In the past, many well-known firms simply evolved as a result of one generation following the next into the family business.

Traditional Family Business

Traditional Family Business

Invariably, sons (and even daughters) left school to join their parent’s firm. It was a handy way to ensure easy succession; and stood Australia in good stead throughout the 1900s. [Read more…]

“How Baby Boomers affect
your Commercial Property”

Last week, you hopefully gained a clearer understanding of the timing (and impact) Baby Boomers will have on Residential property, until around 2025.

Most people probably feel all this would have little or no impact on Commercial property.

And for some of you, that might be true. But I suspect there are many Boomers, where the effect could be quite devastating.

And here is the reason why [Read more…]

The Office Market is Looking Good

While several capital cities still have a reasonably high Office vacancies, there is a general shortage of space looming.

Room to MoveTwelve months ago, it was all doom and gloom for the CBD Office markets in Perth and Brisbane — with falls expected in both rents and values. New projects were being finished, as the resources boom ground to a halt.

In Sydney … investment banks, lawyers and accountants were reducing staff in anticipation of a severe downturn in the finance sector.
[Read more…]

Your Opportunities Moving Forward?

There has been much written already about the global financial crisis.

But in layman’s terms, it occurred as a result of capital imbalances occurring throughout the world. And nowhere more so, than in America.

The principal cause can be found with the high levels of US debt-funded consumption. And in order to better understand this distortion, you might care to consider the following figures …
US Share [Read more…]

Biggest Economic Threat For Australia

It might surprise you to hear this, however …

h3. A Strong US Recovery

… would probably be the worst thing to happen for Australia in 2010.

If that occurs, the US Federal Reserve would be forced to quickly raise interest rates, from zero to around 3%. And that would cause the collapse in the Australian dollar from its current level of around US90c.

Up until now, Australia has been shielded from inflationary pressures, with a high dollar holding down the cost of imports.
[Read more…]

A Strong Finish to 2009

By early December 2009, sales of Commercial property in Melbourne’s CBD had almost reached $1 billion — according to a report prepared by Jones Lang LaSalle.

Apparently, Melbourne office sales (for buildings over $10 million) totalled around $998 million — while in Sydney, it had reached $444 million.

Sales may well have topped the $1 billion mark by the end of December, because this strong activity resulted from private investors — particularly, in the region of $50 million.

And following another recent survey, more than half of Colliers’ client said they were expecting to see further growth in 2010.

In the suburbs, strata Office demand remained strong — with smaller owner-occupiers seeking Offices close to shops and main arterial roads.

Your Handy Economic Clock

Over the years, you have probably seen various economic clocks explaining the different phases, and their relative timing.

Economic Clock

Economic Clock

Anyway, I came across this rather useful one the other day.

As you’ll see, it is actually a “Multi-asset Investment Clock” — in that you have all the sectors displayed together: Shares, Property, Resources and Interest rates.

Furthermore, if you click on it … you’ll see the clock confirms Australia is midway through its Recovery phase.

h3. And the timing for Commercial property? [Read more…]

State of the Commercial Market?

CBD Office Vacancies

CBD Office Vacancies


As you would expect, the financial turmoil worldwide has had a significant effect on most property markets. However, the effect has not been the same across the board.

The current state of the various CBD office markets is probably your best barometer of future activity for two reasons. First, the Property Council of Australia (PCA) conducts six-monthly surveys to establish the CBD vacancy rates right around Australia.
[Read more…]

Sentiment is Strong … Despite the Economy

Looking Up

Looking Up


These graphs are painting a very encouraging picture.

As you can see, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index increased strongly by 9.5% for June.

And that means it has now leapt by some 23% since May — the largest 2-month increase for over 30 years.

First-home buyers have also been active, accounting for nearly 30% of all loans during May.

And this overall level of confidence follows an increase in retail sales, for three months in a row.
[Read more…]

The “Fund Gap” Threatens …
Higher-Priced Commercial Property

Earlier this year, you read about a funding crisis pending for Property Trusts and Institutional buyers. And this is not helped by the RuddBank failing to materialise.

With a surge in the Share Market since March, several recent capital raisings have helped some of these larger property owners.

However, with the latest hiccup in Share Market confidence, you’re unlikely to see much more capital raised in this way.

Capital Gap

Capital Gap

As such, Quadrant Real Estate Advisors have concerns with the high debt levels for these owners of Investment-grade property.

As you can appreciate, the financiers are proving to be rather difficult.

Therefore, over the next two years, you could see a gap of up to $30 billion emerge, between properly valuations and what bank are prepared to fund.

But these problems seem to relate mostly to commercial properties worth more than $20 million.

Because, for properties less than $10 million … the market appears conservatively geared, and is experiencing strong demand — especially for properties in Melbourne, priced under $5 million.

So it is somewhat a two-tiered market … with a number of good opportunities starting to emerge.