Election Year Blues?

It’s not just rising interest rates that the Rudd government will have to contend with, in the run-up to the next election.

The joy of the resources boom restarting brings with it certain unwanted side effects. What you will start to see is wage rate increases; plus the drawing away of materials and equipment, from other sectors within our economy.

Our Exporters

Our Exporters


Furthermore, the stronger Australian dollar will bring increased hardship to our tourism and manufacturing industries — who exported goods and services internationally.

Not to mention, our local businesses … who are finding it harder and harder to compete with cheaper imports.

China

China

Clearly, Australia doesn’t want to miss out on the extraordinary growth occurring in both China and India.

However, the real test of the government will be in how it oversees the insatiable demand for labour and capital by the mining sector — while not starving the rest of the economy of these same key business imports.

With the voice of trade unions becoming louder, the temptation for Rudd is to resort to government subsidies. But sadly, it is often the most vocal (rather than the most deserving) who seemed to benefit from these type of handouts.

Maybe the preferred option would be to allow the “fittest” to survive; and thereby cause of Australia’s overall productivity to rise in the process?

But then, it is an election year!

Nonetheless, the continued stronger demand bodes well for Commercial property during 2010 and beyond.

“How Baby Boomers affect
your Commercial Property”

Last week, you hopefully gained a clearer understanding of the timing (and impact) Baby Boomers will have on Residential property, until around 2025.

Most people probably feel all this would have little or no impact on Commercial property.

And for some of you, that might be true. But I suspect there are many Boomers, where the effect could be quite devastating.

And here is the reason why [Read more…]

Your Opportunities Moving Forward?

There has been much written already about the global financial crisis.

But in layman’s terms, it occurred as a result of capital imbalances occurring throughout the world. And nowhere more so, than in America.

The principal cause can be found with the high levels of US debt-funded consumption. And in order to better understand this distortion, you might care to consider the following figures …
US Share [Read more…]

Biggest Economic Threat For Australia

It might surprise you to hear this, however …

h3. A Strong US Recovery

… would probably be the worst thing to happen for Australia in 2010.

If that occurs, the US Federal Reserve would be forced to quickly raise interest rates, from zero to around 3%. And that would cause the collapse in the Australian dollar from its current level of around US90c.

Up until now, Australia has been shielded from inflationary pressures, with a high dollar holding down the cost of imports.
[Read more…]

Your Handy Economic Clock

Over the years, you have probably seen various economic clocks explaining the different phases, and their relative timing.

Economic Clock

Economic Clock

Anyway, I came across this rather useful one the other day.

As you’ll see, it is actually a “Multi-asset Investment Clock” — in that you have all the sectors displayed together: Shares, Property, Resources and Interest rates.

Furthermore, if you click on it … you’ll see the clock confirms Australia is midway through its Recovery phase.

h3. And the timing for Commercial property? [Read more…]

Keep Your Eye on Inflation!

Balancing Act

Balancing Act


Australia is supposed to be in the midst of a recession; and yet, underlying inflation is still running at 4% per annum.

If that’s the best we can do … what levels will inflation finally reach, once the economy moves into its recovery phase?

Strong sales have seen retailers cutting prices less than expected. And generally, other prices have held firm — because wages have not yet been affected by increases in unemployment.

On top of this, there are also serious supply constraints on the housing front, which are pushing up rentals.

h3. How will this affect things? [Read more…]

Depreciation : 4 Myths Keeping You From
Maximising Your Secret Tax Advantage

Capture The Benefits

Capture The Benefits

Depreciation is probably the most under-used weapon to legitimately shelter a significant portion of your property income.

And as a Commercial Investor, you really do have an unfair advantage over somebody investing in only residential property.

Therefore, let’s now set about dispelling a few of the common Myths concerning Depreciation.
[Read more…]

Demand Finally Surfaces!

The pent-up demand for housing serves to underline that this downturn is more like the credit squeeze of the mid-1970s, than the recession of the early 1990s.

It’s principally a confidence thing.

Surge in 1st Home-Buyer Activity

Surge in 1st Home-Buyer Activity


However, the recent surge in purchases by first-home buyers confirms that with the encouragement of low interest rates and government hand-outs … the buyers will play their part.

More importantly, the flow-on effect throughout the construction industry will give our economy a much needed lift.

Taking Stock of Commercial Property

As I mentioned in a recent email to some Clients, it’s been surprising how few quality properties have been forced onto the market — given the difficulties caused by current global turmoil.

You’ve heard so much lately as to how bad things are. But let’s undertake a quick comparison for Australia — between 1990 and now.
[Read more…]

Year-end Recap, on Where Things Stand!

During October, business borrowing actually expanded by a healthy 1.1 per cent — to be 13.2 per cent for the 12-month period.

However, business debt and credit cards are considered more risky than home loans. Therefore, banks will raise their risk premium in these two areas; and not lower those lending rates, as much as the RBA’s official rate cuts.
[Read more…]

Recognise the Investment Opportunities …

Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers are cutting back on their spending around Australia. And it’s likely that luxury items and overseas travel will be the most affected.

The Flight to ValueA recent article in The Age expounded “The Flight to Value” — where Australian Property Monitors reported a 24% drop in the median price for Toorak Homes, in the 6 months to September.
[Read more…]