September Growth Figures
Just a Pothole in the Road

Growth will continue.

Growth will continue.


Relax, it hasn’t all come to an end.

Sure, the Australian economy may have grown by only 0.2% in the September quarter. And retail sales might have actually fallen by 1.1% for October.

However, the overwhelming consensus is that this is merely an aberration.

And the underlying growth projections remain very favourable — with the full effect of the mining boom having resumed, due to be felt by mid-2011.
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Melbourne Leads the Office Market

Savills International has just released a report on the current level of Office supply within the Melbourne CBD.

 Melbourne CBD Office Vacancies

Melbourne CBD Office Vacancies

Strong demand has seen the number of floors of Prime space within the CBD fall from 60 at the end of January this year, down to 42 at present — a decline of some 30%.

The amount of Secondary Office space has also fallen from 108 floors to 89, over the same period.

And underpinning all of this is the level of enquiry, which has jumped by 300% over the last six months.

Most Economists Agree …

Which, when you think about it, is quite an achievement in itself!

Missed opportunity?

About a fortnight ago,Treasurer Wayne Swan was crowing about the Labor government’s achievements during his Mid-Year Outlook.
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Are Offices “The Go”?

Just take a look around your capital city CBD. And tell me, how many cranes to currently see on the skyline?

Sydney Skyline

Sydney Skyline

In most cities, you could count them on one hand — as there is minimal speculative development occurring right now.
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Why November?

Most people seemed taken by surprise, when the RBA chose to raise the cash rate to 4.75% on Cup Day this week.

However, with Oaks Day being held yesterday, I thought today would be better timing for this post.

Price Pressures

Price Pressures

Sure, the September quarter CPI had fallen to within the RBA’s target range. And yes, there is still some uncertainty overseas.

However, with industry facing capacity constraints and the mining boom heading towards previous levels … inflation is poised to accelerate during the December quarter, as wages start to rise.
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Will They … or Won’t They?

Balance

Balance

Last month, the RBA left rates on hold — because of what it saw as mixed signals within the Australian economy.

And the rising $A is certainly making its job easier, by generally cooling activity.

Work Allocation

Work Allocation

Growth within the Construction industry appears to have fallen to its lowest level in 18 years. Although turnover for mining and processing plants has once again returned to its path of upward growth.
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Where in the Debt Cycle?

In several recent postings, I have given you an overview of where Australia’s economy currently sits within the overall global scene.

The Worm Turns

The Worm Turns

Well the other day, I came across this really neat chart … as part of an article within the Financial Review.
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Global Progress?

The IMF has recently trimmed its overall global forecast — down to 4.2% from 4.3%, for 2011.

Global GrowthThe emerging and developing economies are tipped to grow by 6.4% (with China’s growth being over 9%).

Whereas, the various advanced economies are expected to grow by a subdued 2.2%, on average.

However, any double-dip recession is considered most unlikely — as investment and domestic consumption has replaced the building up of inventories.

According to the IMF: “Investment in machinery and equipment is already showing strength in a number of advanced economies.”

Nonetheless, spending and investment in most advanced economies will be constrained by households replenishing their savings; and banks remaining reluctant to lend freely to businesses. Plus, the US housing market still languishes.

Overall, the lack of business investment (and therefore employment growth) will adversely impact on tax revenues. And thereby, make government debt reduction programs a slow process.

On all counts, Australia will continue to enjoy solid growth — relative to other advanced economies. And this will provide ongoing pressure for interest rates to rise, over the next three years.

All the more reason to lock in your interest rates long-term … for any Commercial property investments you intend to make.

Will Australia’s Growth
Remain Strong?

Pick up any newspaper, and you’ll find most commentators saying the Resources boom is back on once again.

Also, people are pointing to China as our guiding light going forward.

But is this really true? And if so, why?

Here’s a short Video giving you a quick insight into whether there really is any substance to what we’re being told.
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Where to Invest … Right Now!

Last week, you are given a quick overview of the CBD Office scene around Australia. But one of the tightest spots at the moment is the south-eastern Office market in Melbourne.

A recent study by Jones Lang LaSalle revealed there is only 12,200 m2 of space currently under construction — mainly as a result of cautious financiers not being prepared to support speculative development.

As such, vacancies will fall significantly over the next year or so.
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Space Shortage Looming?

Office Vacancy rates around Australia are falling — albeit faster in some capital cities, than others.

The chart below shows you where things currently stand.
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