What about the Baby-Boomer Effect?

Yesterday, the Federal government released Australia’s third Inter-generational Report.

And about five years ago, I came out with a somewhat startling statement:

“If you haven’t sold your traditional family home by 2010-11 … you had better be prepared to hold it until 2025 — because there simply won’t be a market for it!”

Chatswood ... Sydney

Chatswood … Sydney

And given the recent surge in home sales (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) over the past 6 months … you would be excused for thinking my prediction might be way off the mark. [Read more…]

The Office Market is Looking Good

While several capital cities still have a reasonably high Office vacancies, there is a general shortage of space looming.

Room to MoveTwelve months ago, it was all doom and gloom for the CBD Office markets in Perth and Brisbane — with falls expected in both rents and values. New projects were being finished, as the resources boom ground to a halt.

In Sydney … investment banks, lawyers and accountants were reducing staff in anticipation of a severe downturn in the finance sector.
[Read more…]

Your Opportunities Moving Forward?

There has been much written already about the global financial crisis.

But in layman’s terms, it occurred as a result of capital imbalances occurring throughout the world. And nowhere more so, than in America.

The principal cause can be found with the high levels of US debt-funded consumption. And in order to better understand this distortion, you might care to consider the following figures …
US Share [Read more…]

Biggest Economic Threat For Australia

It might surprise you to hear this, however …

h3. A Strong US Recovery

… would probably be the worst thing to happen for Australia in 2010.

If that occurs, the US Federal Reserve would be forced to quickly raise interest rates, from zero to around 3%. And that would cause the collapse in the Australian dollar from its current level of around US90c.

Up until now, Australia has been shielded from inflationary pressures, with a high dollar holding down the cost of imports.
[Read more…]

Your Handy Economic Clock

Over the years, you have probably seen various economic clocks explaining the different phases, and their relative timing.

Economic Clock

Economic Clock

Anyway, I came across this rather useful one the other day.

As you’ll see, it is actually a “Multi-asset Investment Clock” — in that you have all the sectors displayed together: Shares, Property, Resources and Interest rates.

Furthermore, if you click on it … you’ll see the clock confirms Australia is midway through its Recovery phase.

h3. And the timing for Commercial property? [Read more…]

The Future for Interest Rates

The RBA’s underlying rate of inflation rose by 3.5% in the year to September — less that what the markets and the RBA itself expected.

However, this figure needs to fall significantly for the RBA will put interest rates on hold again.

Rate Rises

Rate Rises

With low inventories and industry capacity-use levels up over 80% once more … you could well see the economy reach full capacity sometime early in 2010.

And this was highlighted in last week’s job figures — showing employers took on 24,500 new workers in October, compared with the 10,000 expected.
[Read more…]

Australian Commercial Property is Runnning Its Own Race

Unlike the US and Europe, Australia has not suffered a banking crisis. Therefore, our banking system is still capable of providing credit for normal growth.

With the US unemployment rate approaching 10%, this will delay any quick turnaround for the Commercial property sector.

Decoupling from the US

Decoupling from the US

As you would expect, there is a strong correlation between high unemployment, tenancy contractions and falling commercial property prices. And as a result, a reluctance by banks to provide credit.
[Read more…]

Thankfully, The RBA Displayed
The Courage of Its Convictions

Clearly, many households and first home buyers will have reason to complain … but someone had to step up and show leadership. And it certainly wasn’t going to be the Labor Party.

The RBA's Reasons for Increasing Rates

The RBA's Reasons for Increasing Rates

By increasing the official cash rate from 3% to 3.25%, the RBA has signalled its intention to ensure Australia’s financial future remains the envy of the world.

Rather than simply basking in the recent praise from the IMF and other G20 members.
[Read more…]

Commercial Construction
Outlook Remains Soft

While Australia’s overall business expenditure has remained fairly strong, our Commercial construction and infrastructure outlays are expected to decline by at least 10% this financial year.

Construction OutlookBCI Australia is forecasting project construction of some $63 billion 2009-10, which is about $7.7 billion down on that for 2008-09.

In all but for Victoria and South Australia, there was general over construction during the past few years. And therefore, you are not likely to see new Commercial construction pick up, until mid-2010.And that’s good news as far as impending cost rises, for anyone planning a new project.
[Read more…]

It’s both Good News … and Bad News!

Business Investment

Business Investment

Government statistics show that business investment rose by 3.3% during the three months to June — most of it accounted for by a massive 20% surge in Victoria.

This increase is the latest confirmation that Australia has entered its recovery phase — emerging from the global turmoil, without experiencing a technical recession.

h3. But what does this mean?
[Read more…]

State of the Commercial Market?

CBD Office Vacancies

CBD Office Vacancies


As you would expect, the financial turmoil worldwide has had a significant effect on most property markets. However, the effect has not been the same across the board.

The current state of the various CBD office markets is probably your best barometer of future activity for two reasons. First, the Property Council of Australia (PCA) conducts six-monthly surveys to establish the CBD vacancy rates right around Australia.
[Read more…]