“Cycles Ain’t Cycles”

Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.

h3. The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted

Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.

Commercial Property Cycles

However, given Australia’s privileged position within the global scene … my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
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Australian Commercial Property is Runnning Its Own Race

Unlike the US and Europe, Australia has not suffered a banking crisis. Therefore, our banking system is still capable of providing credit for normal growth.

With the US unemployment rate approaching 10%, this will delay any quick turnaround for the Commercial property sector.

Decoupling from the US

Decoupling from the US

As you would expect, there is a strong correlation between high unemployment, tenancy contractions and falling commercial property prices. And as a result, a reluctance by banks to provide credit.
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Commercial Construction
Outlook Remains Soft

While Australia’s overall business expenditure has remained fairly strong, our Commercial construction and infrastructure outlays are expected to decline by at least 10% this financial year.

Construction OutlookBCI Australia is forecasting project construction of some $63 billion 2009-10, which is about $7.7 billion down on that for 2008-09.

In all but for Victoria and South Australia, there was general over construction during the past few years. And therefore, you are not likely to see new Commercial construction pick up, until mid-2010.And that’s good news as far as impending cost rises, for anyone planning a new project.
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