The Spectre of
Rising Interest Rates

Interest rates still to rise
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not seeing the Australian flood disasters as having a prolonged effect upon the national economy.

It certainly expects the March quarter GDP to decline by 0.5%. But it is then projecting a 4.25% surge, over the remainder of this year. [Read more…]

Where in the Debt Cycle?

In several recent postings, I have given you an overview of where Australia’s economy currently sits within the overall global scene.

The Worm Turns

The Worm Turns

Well the other day, I came across this really neat chart … as part of an article within the Financial Review.
[Read more…]

“Cycles Ain’t Cycles”

Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.

h3. The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted

Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.

Commercial Property Cycles

However, given Australia’s privileged position within the global scene … my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
[Read more…]

“Things Can Change So Quickly”

Share of Trade

Share of Trade

Have you stopped to think just how things have changed over the past 25 years?

Just take a look at the global trade figures for the United States, Japan, Germany and Britain.

After the United States, China is now the world’s largest economy. However, it is currently the largest exporter; while being the second-largest importer.

Here’s a cunning question you might care to pose at your next dinner party.
[Read more…]