State of the Commercial Market?

CBD Office Vacancies

CBD Office Vacancies


As you would expect, the financial turmoil worldwide has had a significant effect on most property markets. However, the effect has not been the same across the board.

The current state of the various CBD office markets is probably your best barometer of future activity for two reasons. First, the Property Council of Australia (PCA) conducts six-monthly surveys to establish the CBD vacancy rates right around Australia.
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The “Fund Gap” Threatens …
Higher-Priced Commercial Property

Earlier this year, you read about a funding crisis pending for Property Trusts and Institutional buyers. And this is not helped by the RuddBank failing to materialise.

With a surge in the Share Market since March, several recent capital raisings have helped some of these larger property owners.

However, with the latest hiccup in Share Market confidence, you’re unlikely to see much more capital raised in this way.

Capital Gap

Capital Gap

As such, Quadrant Real Estate Advisors have concerns with the high debt levels for these owners of Investment-grade property.

As you can appreciate, the financiers are proving to be rather difficult.

Therefore, over the next two years, you could see a gap of up to $30 billion emerge, between properly valuations and what bank are prepared to fund.

But these problems seem to relate mostly to commercial properties worth more than $20 million.

Because, for properties less than $10 million … the market appears conservatively geared, and is experiencing strong demand — especially for properties in Melbourne, priced under $5 million.

So it is somewhat a two-tiered market … with a number of good opportunities starting to emerge.

Looking into the Future for CBD Offices

An earlier post outlined my view on how the various CBD Office Markets would perform around Australia.

Future CBD Office Vacancies

Future CBD Office Vacancies


And a report by the ANZ Bank (in yesterday’s Financial Review) pretty much confirmed that previous advice.

Interestingly, their take on the level of vacancies is that it will not reach anything as bad as the 1990s.

But Perth, Brisbane and Sydney will be the most affected … and slowest to recover.

Which Australian Office Markets are in Trouble?

Queensland seems to have been hardest hit. And in particular the Gold Coast, where vacancy levels have soared to around 18%.

But the difficulties confronting Queensland (and fellow mining State WA) are not necessarily reflected Australia-wide.
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Melbourne Offices: Alive and Well

Even though things may be slowing in Queensland and over in the West … the Melbourne CBD Office market seems to be travelling quite well.
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How to Live with a Labor Government!

Will things really change all that much, now that Australia has wall-to-wall Labor governments across the country?

You’d better believe it!
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