You May be a Doubter … But I say: “Yes, we can!”

The Weekend Financial Review ran several articles, which seemed to echo many of the sentiments contained in my last blog about the Capital City Markets — but perhaps putting things a little more bluntly.

h3. Brisbane

Qeensland DebtMark Ludlow (on page 2) referred to Queensland as having moved from “boom state to gloom state” — because of its heavy reliance on resources. [Read more…]

Which Australian Office Markets are in Trouble?

Queensland seems to have been hardest hit. And in particular the Gold Coast, where vacancy levels have soared to around 18%.

But the difficulties confronting Queensland (and fellow mining State WA) are not necessarily reflected Australia-wide.
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Taking Stock of Commercial Property

As I mentioned in a recent email to some Clients, it’s been surprising how few quality properties have been forced onto the market — given the difficulties caused by current global turmoil.

You’ve heard so much lately as to how bad things are. But let’s undertake a quick comparison for Australia — between 1990 and now.
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Year-end Recap, on Where Things Stand!

During October, business borrowing actually expanded by a healthy 1.1 per cent — to be 13.2 per cent for the 12-month period.

However, business debt and credit cards are considered more risky than home loans. Therefore, banks will raise their risk premium in these two areas; and not lower those lending rates, as much as the RBA’s official rate cuts.
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Recognise the Investment Opportunities …

Anecdotal evidence suggests that consumers are cutting back on their spending around Australia. And it’s likely that luxury items and overseas travel will be the most affected.

The Flight to ValueA recent article in The Age expounded “The Flight to Value” — where Australian Property Monitors reported a 24% drop in the median price for Toorak Homes, in the 6 months to September.
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How You Can Capture a Strategic Advantage

With the recent financial turmoil, you’re seeing a number of potential buyers who have pulled back from the Commercial Property Market for the time being.

Therefore, for some properties, you are starting to see the “Neglect Effect” come into play.
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Some Answers in These Troubled Times

There are a couple of questions on the minds of Commercial Property Investors at the moment.

And they go something like this.
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Will there be an Office Market Collapse?

According to the recent Property Council (PCA) report in the Financial Review (AFR) … the 6 months to June saw overall demand for offices fall around Australia — as business confidence has gradually waned throughout the world.
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Trying to Make Sense of Things?

There has been much made of the poor US Retail Sales Data for December.

However, the figures were only down 0.4% on November. The most likely explanation being that some early Christmas shopping occurred November; and the increase in gift-card sales will not come through until early in 2008.

Clearly, the Sub-prime issues are having some effect. But, if you follow HS Dent at all — their view is that … “a short, mild recession is indeed likely, and we are arguably already in the middle of it.” (Update: Wednesday 16 January 2008).
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Will the RBA Raise Rates on Melbourne Cup Day?

If you believe the financial markets, there is a 90% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase out the cash rate from 6.5 per cent to 6.75 per cent.

US Figures Nov 07But unlike other Board Meetings, there has been a gap of about a fortnight between the releases of the CPI figures and when it actually does meet on 8 November. And much can happen over that period.
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A Brave New World

Given the recent financial turmoil overseas, there are several questions that seem to be continually surfacing.

Can the world live with a ballooning US trade deficit? Are asset prices currently too high? Does anything good actually come from outsourcing to China and India? How will all that’s going on affect you as a Property investor?

To fully address these questions, you first need consider the change in the way Western companies are now operating.
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