“Cycles Ain’t Cycles”

Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.

The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted

Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.

Commercial Property Cycles

However, given Australia’s privileged position within the global scene … my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
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Some Gloom … Yet More Glee!

The US Federal Reserve is concerned that consumption is still being underpinned by government funding.

US Interest RatesAnd so, even though stimulus measures may be winding down … the Fed has decided to maintain interest rates at their historically low level.

It seems that households and businesses are preferring to repay debt, rather than spend to encourage investment and growth.

In Europe, there is still simply not enough trust between Banks to lend to one another. And that means credit is extremely tight. Right now, Central Banks are stepping in to lend to private banks, in an attempt to free up funds to boost economic activity.

China still remains the bright light with its growing demand for of the commodities Australia exports.

The IMF actually predicts that the Asian economy (which includes Australia) will be 50% larger within five years.

And it will then represent about a third of the world’s trading activity.

h2. The Implications for Commercial Property

Foreign BuyersAlready, major Asian sovereign wealth funds and property trusts are starting to target Office towers within Australian capital cities.

In fact, foreign buyers have invested around $1.7 billion during the past 12 months — representing about 70% of the purchase is made.

While this won’t directly affect the smaller private buyer … it will force everyone to move down a price bracket ought to — looking for better value.

Therefore, as yields quickly firm at the upper levels … this will soon have a ripple effect down through more modestly priced Commercial investment property.

Couple this with rising rentals, as the supply of Office space starts to fall around Australia … and now would be the perfect time to position yourself, ready for the next growth cycle.

Interest Rate Rises …
Are they a Good Sign?

The RBA’s decision on interest rates yesterday came about because of what’s happening here in Australia, rather than in Europe.

It has been made against the backdrop of our exporters having recently extracted massive price hikes for iron or in coal, as a result of China’s strong growth.

Since the global turmoil started in 2008, the $A has climbed by nearly 55% against the $US — and just over 40% against our other key trading partners.

RBA Logic

RBA Logic

This has more or less offset the rise in Australia’s local retail prices, through a sharp decline in the cost of imported items — like electrical goods, clothing, footwear and furniture.

As a result, the NAB’s business confidence index stands firmly positive for the third consecutive quarter. And even more importantly, actually improved throughout the last quarter.

h2. How will this affect Commercial Property?
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Election Year Blues?

It’s not just rising interest rates that the Rudd government will have to contend with, in the run-up to the next election.

The joy of the resources boom restarting brings with it certain unwanted side effects. What you will start to see is wage rate increases; plus the drawing away of materials and equipment, from other sectors within our economy.

Our Exporters

Our Exporters


Furthermore, the stronger Australian dollar will bring increased hardship to our tourism and manufacturing industries — who exported goods and services internationally.

Not to mention, our local businesses … who are finding it harder and harder to compete with cheaper imports.

China

China

Clearly, Australia doesn’t want to miss out on the extraordinary growth occurring in both China and India.

However, the real test of the government will be in how it oversees the insatiable demand for labour and capital by the mining sector — while not starving the rest of the economy of these same key business imports.

With the voice of trade unions becoming louder, the temptation for Rudd is to resort to government subsidies. But sadly, it is often the most vocal (rather than the most deserving) who seemed to benefit from these type of handouts.

Maybe the preferred option would be to allow the “fittest” to survive; and thereby cause of Australia’s overall productivity to rise in the process?

But then, it is an election year!

Nonetheless, the continued stronger demand bodes well for Commercial property during 2010 and beyond.

Was the RBA Asleep at the Wheel?

In fact, the RBA has been cautious … NOT asleep!

Last week, we covered the statistical anomaly relating to Australia’s low unemployment figure. And that may well have influenced the RBA in holding rates steady last month.

Although, the patchy spending in December and January probably coloured their thinking as well.

Bursting Bubbles

Bursting Bubbles


Nonetheless, you continue to see a surge in home values; and headline inflation is now starting to creep up again. [Read more…]

"Statistics Never Lie, or Do They?"

There are some interesting outcomes emerging from a wash-up of the recent financial turmoil.

Australia has fared best among the Western countries, with its unemployment rate at only 5.3% and falling. But does this now mean you’ll start to see wage pressures emerging?
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What about the Baby-Boomer Effect?

Yesterday, the Federal government released Australia’s third Inter-generational Report.

And about five years ago, I came out with a somewhat startling statement:

“If you haven’t sold your traditional family home by 2010-11 … you had better be prepared to hold it until 2025 — because there simply won’t be a market for it!”

Chatswood ... Sydney

Chatswood … Sydney

And given the recent surge in home sales (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) over the past 6 months … you would be excused for thinking my prediction might be way off the mark. [Read more…]

Your Opportunities Moving Forward?

There has been much written already about the global financial crisis.

But in layman’s terms, it occurred as a result of capital imbalances occurring throughout the world. And nowhere more so, than in America.

The principal cause can be found with the high levels of US debt-funded consumption. And in order to better understand this distortion, you might care to consider the following figures …
US Share [Read more…]

Biggest Economic Threat For Australia

It might surprise you to hear this, however …

h3. A Strong US Recovery

… would probably be the worst thing to happen for Australia in 2010.

If that occurs, the US Federal Reserve would be forced to quickly raise interest rates, from zero to around 3%. And that would cause the collapse in the Australian dollar from its current level of around US90c.

Up until now, Australia has been shielded from inflationary pressures, with a high dollar holding down the cost of imports.
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Keep Your Eye on Inflation!

Balancing Act

Balancing Act


Australia is supposed to be in the midst of a recession; and yet, underlying inflation is still running at 4% per annum.

If that’s the best we can do … what levels will inflation finally reach, once the economy moves into its recovery phase?

Strong sales have seen retailers cutting prices less than expected. And generally, other prices have held firm — because wages have not yet been affected by increases in unemployment.

On top of this, there are also serious supply constraints on the housing front, which are pushing up rentals.

h3. How will this affect things? [Read more…]

Sentiment is Strong … Despite the Economy

Looking Up

Looking Up


These graphs are painting a very encouraging picture.

As you can see, the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index increased strongly by 9.5% for June.

And that means it has now leapt by some 23% since May — the largest 2-month increase for over 30 years.

First-home buyers have also been active, accounting for nearly 30% of all loans during May.

And this overall level of confidence follows an increase in retail sales, for three months in a row.
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