Commercial Property Looking Forward

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Is there a Future for Offices?

The last couple of articles have talked about all the misplaced doom and the gloom.

Plus, you also covered the various reasons why Australia overall is well placed to flourish (and not just survive) the current global distress.

A recent report on the Australian Office scene (by Morgan Stanley property research) would only tend to confirm that view. Their only concern would be the Sydney market, due to its heavy exposure to the financial sector. [Read more…]

Why All The Panic?


Are we really heading for GFC Mark II?

Well, not here in Australia anyway! And even overseas, things are vastly different this time around.

In 2008/09, it was private debt causing the problems … because nobody was too sure which banks were overly exposed to the sub-prime mortgage problem. [Read more…]

Let’s Stop The Doom & Gloom! How About Some Good News?

For the past few weeks, the world’s media seems to have been dominated by two unfolding dramas:

  1. The extraordinary and rather amateur performance in Washington, as the US government lurched towards potential default.
  2. The concerning spike in euro-region yields, against the backdrop of their apparently insoluble sovereign debt issues.

However, as Amy Auster reported in Saturday’s Financial Review, there was also a really positive development last week (certainly for Australia), which seems to have simply “snuck under the radar”. [Read more…]

Foreigners Seem to Love
Our Commercial Property

Australia’s dollar may be considered high compared with other countries, but that hasn’t dampened overseas Investors who are clamouring to buy up our Commercial property.

And this only serves to confirm Australia’s “safe-haven status”, being closely aligned with the Asian region. [Read more…]

The Australian Office Scene


Last Friday, I attended the annual Commercial & Industrial Economic Forecast Luncheon.

And Dr Frank Gelber (director of BIS Shrapnel) kindly provided is perspective on the Australian economy and the Melbourne Commercial property market — looking forward for the next 5 to 6 years.

Probably the most pleasing aspect was … that his views will were pretty much in line with what I’ve been telling you here, for the past six months or so … [Read more…]

Commercial Property:
Pricing Your Finance – Part 2

Last week, you looked at the reasons why lenders view Commercial property in a different league to Residential property, when it comes to finance.

Many things can affect the Pricing of your LoanAnd then, we moved to the various aspects Commercial lenders look at as far as Risk is concerned.

More importantly, just how these aspects will determine whether or not they will actually lend against the actual property you are looking to purchase.

However, what you really want to know is … [Read more…]

Suburban Offices Set to Surge

Over the past few weeks, you have been reading articles about the various Office markets around Australia.

As such, you would now be aware of how each capital City compares, in relation to its … Vacancy rates … Rental levels … and expected Capital growth.

 You can expect definite Rental Growth in the city fringe.However, most of that commentary has been focused upon CBD Offices. And as a result, people have been enquiring about just how the Suburban Office markets are also likely to perform, over the next few years.

Clearly, a rent differential exists between the City and Suburban Office markets. And obviously, that rental gap will also vary, as you move around Australia. [Read more…]

Commercial Property:
Arranging Your Finance – Part 1

Commercial property finance is one of those aspects probably the least understood — and therefore, can lead to some are rather poor decisions by investors.

Take care when arranging your Commercial LoanThe most important thing you need to grasp is that there are basically no hard and fast rules about the various factors like … the leverage that is available … costs associated with Commercial loans or … the actual lending criteria most financiers and adopt.

When it comes to Commercial finance, everything has to be viewed in relation to the strength and size of each particular deal. [Read more…]

“Where You Live Should NOT
Dictate Where You Actually Invest!”

Always consider the emerging trendsWherever you live, you tend to believe (and will happily tell people) that it is undoubtedly the best place to live.

Really, it’s just human nature.

But when it comes to investing your hard-earned dollars into Commercial property … your decisions should be governed by something more than a warm and fuzzy feeling.

For the past four or five years, Victoria has led the nation in economic growth; and it is one of the few enjoying a net growth in migration from other states.

Employment Growth shows some interesting trendsFurthermore, the latest ABS figures now confirm Victoria’s continued growth and job creation — leading all-comers over the past 12 months.

And you’ll also notice most of the various service sectors are currently outstripping the mining sector, as far as employment numbers are concerned. [Read more…]

Office Sector Set to Surge Ahead

Offices are enjoying strong demand
Australia-wide, Office vacancies are falling.

And Melbourne leads the way at 5.5%; with Perth close behind, at 6.6% — due to the rebound in mining activity.

Offices set to SurgeAccording to the Property Council of Australia, these vacancy levels will reach 4.9% and 6.1% respectively, by January of next year.

With zero space coming onto the market in Melbourne, landlords will be well-placed to renegotiate far more attractive deals, as leases fall due for renewal.

Whereas, Brisbane’s current vacancy level of 9.2% is expected to blow out to 9.8% — making it very much a tenants’ market, as far as lease negotiations are concerned.

While rents are rising in most capital cities, selling yields are set to fall as well. This double benefit will be reflected in strong capital growth over the next four years.

Bottom Line: Shrewd investors are currently ranking their preferred Commercial sectors as follows …

  1. Office (both suburban and CBD)
  2. Industrial
  3. Retail

Now is the time for you to start re-balancing your portfolio — and ride the growth wave through to 2018.


A Word of Caution!

My apologies for not posting any articles for the past week or so … but I sneaked away to Noosa with Jenny for a short break.

Anyway, I’ll make it up to you with two articles for this week.

Firstly, about Retail …

Not enough Retail TherapyYou’ve been aware of my general concern with the Retail sector over the past few years. And that’s because the fundamentals are out of alignment.

Of all the sectors within the Commercial market, most people feel comfortable with Retail. And that’s only natural — because all your family members are usually going in out of shops, as part of their everyday life.

However, familiarity with something doesn’t always make for good investment decisions.

And yet, investors continue to out-bid one another — quite prepared to accept yields as low as 3% per annum, for some Retail investment properties. [Read more…]