Commercial Property: The Impact of China

LAST week, The Australian newspaper invited three Commercial property experts to respond to the following question:

If China’s growth story begins to peter out, what will be the impact on Australia’s commercial property market?

China's Impact on Australian Commercial PropertyThose experts included … Greg Marr (MD of DTZ), Tony Crabb (Research Head of Savills), together with me (as CEO of Properly Edge Australia).

And you can read all three responses, which appeared in Saturday’s Weekend Australian [Commercial Property 3]. What I’ve included here below is my contribution to that analysis … [Read more…]

Lack of Construction Underpins
Demand for Office Space

Available Full CBD Office Floors are quickly vanishingThe Commercial property market is driven mainly by supply and demand — especially Offices.

And therefore, with …

  • falling vacancies,
  • positive net absorption and
  • few new projects in the pipeline …

… this means a looming shortage of Office space around Australia — with rentals poised to rise sharply. [Read more…]

Will the RBA Cut Rates Again?

 This may well be the last Interest Rate Cut
Last week’s inflation figures were certainly much better than expected.

As such, there had been considerable political pressure placed on the RBA from by the government to cut interest rates this week.

Retailers were virtually pleading with the RBA to do so. Plus, homeowners were also looking for some relief in the run up to Christmas.

However, this is probably the last interest rate cut by the RBA for quite some time. To understand why, you need to cast your mind back to when the GFC began in 2008.

RBA has a real Dilemma going forwardAt the time, business investment was falling.

This is unlikely to occur from now on — because planned mining investment (at $430 billion) is three times greater than in 2008, representing about a third of Australian’s GDP.

And overall, Australia is said to have around $900 billion of business investment in the pipeline.

Furthermore, our main trading partner (China) is now far less dependent upon Western countries for its growth.

In 2008, China’s 12% per annum growth in GDP reflected a 3% to 4% component of exports to the West. While this year’s 9.5% growth in GDP was basically driven by domestic demand — with virtually no exports involved.

Overall, there is said to be around $900 billion of business investment in the pipeline. Add to that the improved stability of Australian banks, with their reduced offshore exposure and improved domestic deposits. Plus, an increase in the Tier 1 capital ratios.

Finally you also need to remember the RBA’s cash rate has now fallen from 7.25% in 2008 to its current level of 4.5% today.

Bottom Line: Apart from the current turmoil in Europe, Australia’s underlying fundamentals are solid. And these augur well for strong growth in Commercial property over the next 5 years.

To reduce interest rates any further would only serve to artificially inflate asset prices — rather than allow the market to grow organically … based upon genuine, sustainable demand.

 

Commercial Property: 5 Key Things to Consider

Location, Position, Where it ...Commercial property does require a little more thought than Residential property. But the rewards are solid; and generally, more predictable.

Simply keep these 5 aspects in mind, when it comes to choosing Commercial property. [Read more…]

Commercial Property: Should You Be Cautious
About Investing in the Retail Sector?

The Retail sector is very delicately balancedMany investors just simply fall in love with Retail property. And probably, because of familiarity — as it tends to influence so much of our daily lives.

Therefore, after investing in Residential property for a while, you find people will gravitate naturally towards Retail properly.

To them, it seems to be the next logical step. But is that actually the case? [Read more…]

Commercial Property: Home-study Course
Now Taking Shape

My new Training Course is quickly taking shape
Yesterday, I gave my Inner Circle a “sneak peek” at the outline for my brand-new training Course … “Mastering Commercial Property”.

And over the past couple of weeks, I have actually progressed a fair way down the track, in bringing it all together.

However, I just wanted you to see the direction in which it was heading.

Therefore, you can take a look now at just how the website is taking shape. And please keep your feedback coming — because no it’s been just so helpful.

 

Commercial Property to Benefit as …
The Manufacturing Sector Declines

According to BlueScope Steel … business, governments, industry associations and unions need to share responsibility for its recent decision to reduce (by 50%) Port Kembla’s production capacity.

However, this attempt to sheet home blame serves only to deflect attention from the more fundamental (and structural) changes occurring within the manufacturing sector as a whole.

The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed WorldWithin his new book “The Next Convergence”, Nobel laureate economist Michael Spence makes some telling forecasts.

In his view … developing economies like China, India and Brazil (which house about 60% of the world’s population) will reach “advanced status” by 2050-60.

And the current problems facing the West — excess debt, over-consumption and poor banking practices — are not merely a cyclical aberration. [Read more…]

Tried-and-True Tips to Profit from Commercial Real Estate Investing

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Tips for your Success with Commercial propertyTHE BEST looking property could actually represent the worst real estate investment you have ever made.

Remember that Commercial real estate investing is all about … the Deal, the Terms and the Return on investment. Here are some tips for successful Commercial real estate investing. [Read more…]

Commercial Property: 5 Key Decisions To Help Guarantee Your Investment Success

 You need to make certain Decisions to Succeed with Commercial property
Investing in Commercial property is not “rocket science”.

Nonetheless, there are certain key steps you do need to follow. And those involve you in making a number of simple (yet vital) decisions.

DECISION #1: Your Goals for the long and short term?
In other words, are you seeking Income on Capital growth — or both? Maybe you are after some good Tax savings — through negative gearing or Depreciation? [Read more…]

Foreigners Seem to Love
Our Commercial Property

Australia’s dollar may be considered high compared with other countries, but that hasn’t dampened overseas Investors who are clamouring to buy up our Commercial property.

And this only serves to confirm Australia’s “safe-haven status”, being closely aligned with the Asian region. [Read more…]

Top Commercial Property Investors
Always Have a Master Plan

You need a good Master Plan
When you’re just starting out, your main aim is probably just trying to secure a worthwhile property.

However, to be truly successful, you actually do need to have a Master Plan.

And to help you, here are 6 Steps towards formulating one for yourself. [Read more…]