Rates on Hold … For Now!

Inflation Watch
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank left the cash rate unchanged at 4.75%. And these graphs will help to explain their current dilemma.

For the time being, the RBA’s focus is upon “inflation excluding volatile items” — mainly because of the various natural disasters, both here and overseas. [Read more…]

Commercial Sales Gain Momentum

AuctioAuctioneer's gavelneer's gavel
Around Australia, Commercial clearance rates at auction are now about on par with Residential property — averaging at around 50%.

Victoria seems to be leading the way, with Commercial clearance rates for some types of property approaching 70%.

New South Wales is running about six months behind at? around 60%, with firming yields. And Queensland is probably a further 12 to 18 months away in its recovery. [Read more…]

“Cycles Ain’t Cycles”

Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.

h3. The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted

Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.

Commercial Property Cycles

However, given Australia’s privileged position within the global scene … my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
[Read more…]

Commercial Property Cycles

How do you ever understand them?

Before talking to you about Commercial property, let’s take a quick look at Investment Cycles in general.

Investment CycleA recent AFR article contained this rather clever chart … showing an Investor’s mood at different points throughout the Cycle.

My reading would be that Australia is currently at the “Optimism” stage of the upturn — perhaps with some capital cities, a little more so than others. But generally, that’s about where most of us are at the moment.
[Read more…]

CBD Office Markets

CBD Office Sales

CBD Office Sales


As a result of the global financial crisis … sales of Melbourne CBD Offices fell in 2008 (to $425.2m) from the level achieved in 2007 (of $850.9m) — according to research released by CBRE.

Institutional buyers and REITs have virtually withdrawn from the market … leaving private syndicates, wealthy families and overseas buyers to transact most of the deals.
[Read more…]