Retail Reality

Wallet Workout
As this graph shows, there has been a strong long-term relationship between unemployment and retail vacancies.

And were you to base your Investment decisions on this measure alone, you could be forgiven for assuming there will be a healthy couple of years ahead of the retail sector as a whole.
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From here on …
Back to a 2-Speed Economy?

The latest figures show unemployment crept up from 5.2% to 5.3% last month — probably due to school leavers. However, the total number of hours worked actually jumped by 2.4% during February.

2-Speed Economy

2-Speed Economy

With predictions of a 60% surge in commodity prices from next month’s contract re-negotiations, this will put further strain upon the labour and capital resources of both New South Wales and Victoria.
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The Future for Interest Rates

The RBA’s underlying rate of inflation rose by 3.5% in the year to September — less that what the markets and the RBA itself expected.

However, this figure needs to fall significantly for the RBA will put interest rates on hold again.

Rate Rises

Rate Rises

With low inventories and industry capacity-use levels up over 80% once more … you could well see the economy reach full capacity sometime early in 2010.

And this was highlighted in last week’s job figures — showing employers took on 24,500 new workers in October, compared with the 10,000 expected.
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Do You Remember Back Then … ?

In an earlier article, I gave you a bullet-point comparison of how things are NOW … compared to the early 1990s … in relation to Commercial property.

Anyway, here are some very revealing graphs — based upon figures from the RBA.

Now & Then

Now & Then


Back in the 1990s, the banks were burdened with a heavy corporate exposure; and interest rates were up around 18% pa.
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