The Rapid Recovery Should NOT Come as a Surprise

YOU MAY RECALL back in May and July, I foreshadowed a quick recovery would occur – as soon as we emerged from lockdown.

You see, what we’ve just been through, is a medical crisis with financial implications. NOT a total financial collapse – like we had during the GFC.

As such, “Demand” didn’t disappear … it simply got deferred. And you’ve already observed that with consumers now engaging in “Retail revenge” – as depicted in the graphic below (AFR, front page: 3 Dec 2020).

During the pandemic my clients seemed to fall into two camps:

  • Those who feared a total collapse, with a prolonged recovery.
  • Those who listened and saw the opportunity to secure a good property, while the market itself remained confused.

Already you are seeing eager buyers re-entering the property market (both residential and commercial) – with prices on the rise once more.

Therefore, those who did buy during the pandemic are now having their faith vindicated. And now, the strength of this renewed demand is bringing more properties onto the market.

Therein, Lies Your Next Opportunity

Not all the properties coming onto the market during November & December can be absorbed before Christmas.

Naturally, this will make those vendors somewhat unsettled – because the commercial market doesn’t officially reopen again until February/March.

So, if you are cashed up and able to move quickly … there should be a number of good choices for you early in the New Year.

Bottom Line: What I’m planning to do is compile a list of those unsold properties for my clients. And then, we’ll quietly sift through these opportunities together – to help clients secure several genuine bargains.

If that could be of interest to you … just let me know.

Smashing The 5 Myths About Commercial Property

RIGHT NOW everyone is rather confused because of COVID. And what I generally find is that when investors are confused … they tend to do nothing. 

Yet despite the dire predictions of market collapses, that’s NOT what has occurred. Sure, the share market has been rather volatile. However, the property market has basically held up well. [Read more…]

How Quickly Can Australia’s Economy Recover?

SEVERAL CLIENTS have been asking about how long until things start to get back to “normal”. And what changes investors need to watch for, after we emerged from lockdown.

During times of economic uncertainty, you should focus on the underlying fundamentals driving demand and investment. And these still remain strong.

In my view, you should see a stronger than expected recovery – provided various states don’t unnecessarily delay the steps needed to restart the economy. [Read more…]

The True Impact of US-China Trade Wars

THERE WAS A FAVOURABLE response to the so-called Phase 1 breakthrough in the Trade Talks, between the US and China. And there’s been further positive developments this week.

However, it is actually worth reviewing where things stood before these recent events.

Despite political tensions, there has been little adverse impact on Australia’s trade with China. And the rapid increase in China’s share of our exports has been principally driven by higher iron ore prices. [Read more…]

Likely Impact of the US/China Trade War on Property

ACCORDING TO JP MORGAN, the expected trade war should only shave about 0.07% off Australia’s GDP over the next couple of years. [Read more…]

You Need to Look Behind The Economic Data

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A NUMBER of journalists and economic pundits seem to have been focussing solely upon the latest GDP figures.

However, the recent NAB monthly business survey appears to contradict concerns about the shaky household consumption sector – where the main concerns seem to relate to past issues.

Mainly things like … the end of the mining boom, resulting in a collapse of wage growth. [Read more…]

How Will Trump’s Win Affect Commercial Property?

Trump and Commercial Property

WHILE THE WORLD may be stunned by Donald Trump’s win, you’ll most likely find things will not be nearly as bad as everyone thinks.

And that’s reflected in the huge rebound in the stock market — once investors began studying his policies in more depth.

How did Trump achieve the Win?

In many respects, the media is responsible for the outcome — because so much airplay was given to his outlandish rhetoric. [Read more…]

Will Lower Oil Prices Mean Improved Economic Growth?

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Oil-decline

THE ANSWER is both Yes and No … depending upon which country you live in.

Oil-GDPLast weekend’s Financial Review reported an analysis by Oxford Economics, which predicted the likely effect upon GDP during 2015-16 … of oil being at $US40 Vs. $US84 per barrel.

And a quick summary of that is included over on the right. [Read more…]

Commercial Property: State of The Nation

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Office-Buildings

OFFICE VACANCY RATES have lept towards 15% in Brisbane, Darwin, Canberra, Adelaide and Perth. And this takes the national average to 12.4%, as an overall vacancy level.

However, businesses are now leasing space once again in both Sydney and Melbourne — where their vacancy rates are currently hovering around 10%, according to Jones Lang LaSalle. [Read more…]

How Does The Aussie Dollar Affect Commercial Property?

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Aussie-Dollar

In simple terms, the answer is … both indirectly and indirectly.

The RBA’s Dilemma

General consensus is that our dollar should ideally be trading at around US85 cents. And that would provide a balance between encouraging non-resource export businesses, while not adding unwanted inflationary pressure.

The RBA could achieve this simply by lowering the official interest rate. However, that would then fuel even more local borrowing — especially within the residential property market. [Read more…]

A Growing Economy is Good For Commercial Property

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Homemaker-Centre

HAVE YOU NOTICED how people are generally now acting in a far more positive manner. And that’s simply because they are starting to feel “wealthy” again. [Read more…]