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business investment

Commercial Property Poised to Take Off in 2012

ALL YOU need is a sprinkling of confidence … with an understanding that things are not as bad as you read in many newspapers.

For some time now, I have been trying to explain how the underlying fundamentals for Australia’s economy and Commercial property are strong.

And a recent AFR headline Recruitment boom bucks the trend (9 Dec 2011, page 41) now confirms that our major law firms are “in the midst of a hiring spree”.

Purely a Matter of ConfidenceHowever, if you still need some more convincing of Australia’s well-being, just take a look at these two graphs. [Read more…]

Be Prepared for Strong Growth in Commercial Property During 2012

Australia stands poised ready to growThe underlying fundamentals for Australia are strong.

All that’s needed is a lift in the general confidence level, for our economy to really take off.

Therefore, the trick is … not to be caught by surprise when it does! [Read more…]

Will the RBA Cut Rates Again?

 This may well be the last Interest Rate Cut
Last week’s inflation figures were certainly much better than expected.

As such, there had been considerable political pressure placed on the RBA from by the government to cut interest rates this week.

Retailers were virtually pleading with the RBA to do so. Plus, homeowners were also looking for some relief in the run up to Christmas.

However, this is probably the last interest rate cut by the RBA for quite some time. To understand why, you need to cast your mind back to when the GFC began in 2008.

RBA has a real Dilemma going forwardAt the time, business investment was falling.

This is unlikely to occur from now on — because planned mining investment (at $430 billion) is three times greater than in 2008, representing about a third of Australian’s GDP.

And overall, Australia is said to have around $900 billion of business investment in the pipeline.

Furthermore, our main trading partner (China) is now far less dependent upon Western countries for its growth.

In 2008, China’s 12% per annum growth in GDP reflected a 3% to 4% component of exports to the West. While this year’s 9.5% growth in GDP was basically driven by domestic demand — with virtually no exports involved.

Overall, there is said to be around $900 billion of business investment in the pipeline. Add to that the improved stability of Australian banks, with their reduced offshore exposure and improved domestic deposits. Plus, an increase in the Tier 1 capital ratios.

Finally you also need to remember the RBA’s cash rate has now fallen from 7.25% in 2008 to its current level of 4.5% today.

Bottom Line: Apart from the current turmoil in Europe, Australia’s underlying fundamentals are solid. And these augur well for strong growth in Commercial property over the next 5 years.

To reduce interest rates any further would only serve to artificially inflate asset prices — rather than allow the market to grow organically … based upon genuine, sustainable demand.

 

Commercial Property & The Economy

The IMF has just given Australia the thumbs upLast week, to the IMF gave the Australian economy a positive report card — with a projected growth of 1.8% for 2011, and 3.3% for the ensuing 12 months.

Clearly there is international concern about the state of affairs within Europe and the US.

However, that belies the positive impact being provided by the rest of the world.

Although China’s growth is slowing, it still remains at a healthy 9% per annum; and India is not too far behind at 7.5% per annum.

When you add to that Latin America at 4%, and parts of Africa at close to 6% … you then start to see the northern Atlantic problems in some perspective. [Read more…]

Global Progress?

The IMF has recently trimmed its overall global forecast — down to 4.2% from 4.3%, for 2011.

Global GrowthThe emerging and developing economies are tipped to grow by 6.4% (with China’s growth being over 9%).

Whereas, the various advanced economies are expected to grow by a subdued 2.2%, on average.

However, any double-dip recession is considered most unlikely — as investment and domestic consumption has replaced the building up of inventories.

According to the IMF: “Investment in machinery and equipment is already showing strength in a number of advanced economies.”

Nonetheless, spending and investment in most advanced economies will be constrained by households replenishing their savings; and banks remaining reluctant to lend freely to businesses. Plus, the US housing market still languishes.

Overall, the lack of business investment (and therefore employment growth) will adversely impact on tax revenues. And thereby, make government debt reduction programs a slow process.

On all counts, Australia will continue to enjoy solid growth — relative to other advanced economies. And this will provide ongoing pressure for interest rates to rise, over the next three years.

All the more reason to lock in your interest rates long-term … for any Commercial property investments you intend to make.

From here on …
Back to a 2-Speed Economy?

The latest figures show unemployment crept up from 5.2% to 5.3% last month — probably due to school leavers. However, the total number of hours worked actually jumped by 2.4% during February.

2-Speed Economy

2-Speed Economy

With predictions of a 60% surge in commodity prices from next month’s contract re-negotiations, this will put further strain upon the labour and capital resources of both New South Wales and Victoria.
[Read more…]

It’s both Good News … and Bad News!

Business Investment

Business Investment

Government statistics show that business investment rose by 3.3% during the three months to June — most of it accounted for by a massive 20% surge in Victoria.

This increase is the latest confirmation that Australia has entered its recovery phase — emerging from the global turmoil, without experiencing a technical recession.

h3. But what does this mean?
[Read more…]