The RBA Keeps Its Powder Dry

RBA Explains Australia's Economic Position Yesterday, the Reserve Bank decided to hold the cash rate steady at 4.75%.

However, it also acknowledged that Australia’s underlying inflation rate will now be running at around 3% for the year — and that’s ignoring volatile items, like petrol and food price spikes.

Economists tend to agree that the high $A has effectively done much of the “heavy lifting” for the RBA.

But as these graphs show, the RBA will most likely be forced into a midyear rate rise. With at least one further rise likely, before the end of 2011.

Put simply: Increasing business confidence (confirmed by improved Business Credit figures) means more investment being undertaken by business … which will in turn will put pressure on wage rates.

So far, the RBA has displayed a bias towards pre-emptive action. And there is no reason to suggest it would suddenly change that approach. As such, many people have been left confused by yesterday’s decision.

However, astute Commercial property investors recognise the time to strike is when the “uninformed” are dithering … due to their lack of understanding.


Interest Rate Rises …
Are they a Good Sign?

The RBA’s decision on interest rates yesterday came about because of what’s happening here in Australia, rather than in Europe.

It has been made against the backdrop of our exporters having recently extracted massive price hikes for iron or in coal, as a result of China’s strong growth.

Since the global turmoil started in 2008, the $A has climbed by nearly 55% against the $US — and just over 40% against our other key trading partners.

RBA Logic

RBA Logic

This has more or less offset the rise in Australia’s local retail prices, through a sharp decline in the cost of imported items — like electrical goods, clothing, footwear and furniture.

As a result, the NAB’s business confidence index stands firmly positive for the third consecutive quarter. And even more importantly, actually improved throughout the last quarter.

h2. How will this affect Commercial Property?
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