Australia’s Growth to Continue

Asian exports
Late last year, Citigroup published this chart depicting Australia’s reliance upon export markets within the Asian region.

Clearly, Australia is running well ahead of other western countries, with our exports representing over 6% of GDP to emerging Asia. And this is twice the level it was just six years ago.
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Retail Property Facing Challenges

Retail challenges.


Having weathered the recent rate increases, consumer confidence seems to have risen just a measly 0.3% during November — according to the latest Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index.

Households still appear to prefer paying down debt, rather than spending — with Australia’s saving level hovering around a record 10.5% of its disposable income.
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September Growth Figures
Just a Pothole in the Road

Growth will continue.

Growth will continue.


Relax, it hasn’t all come to an end.

Sure, the Australian economy may have grown by only 0.2% in the September quarter. And retail sales might have actually fallen by 1.1% for October.

However, the overwhelming consensus is that this is merely an aberration.

And the underlying growth projections remain very favourable — with the full effect of the mining boom having resumed, due to be felt by mid-2011.
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Most Economists Agree …

Which, when you think about it, is quite an achievement in itself!

Missed opportunity?

About a fortnight ago,Treasurer Wayne Swan was crowing about the Labor government’s achievements during his Mid-Year Outlook.
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Why November?

Most people seemed taken by surprise, when the RBA chose to raise the cash rate to 4.75% on Cup Day this week.

However, with Oaks Day being held yesterday, I thought today would be better timing for this post.

Price Pressures

Price Pressures

Sure, the September quarter CPI had fallen to within the RBA’s target range. And yes, there is still some uncertainty overseas.

However, with industry facing capacity constraints and the mining boom heading towards previous levels … inflation is poised to accelerate during the December quarter, as wages start to rise.
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Will They … or Won’t They?

Balance

Balance

Last month, the RBA left rates on hold — because of what it saw as mixed signals within the Australian economy.

And the rising $A is certainly making its job easier, by generally cooling activity.

Work Allocation

Work Allocation

Growth within the Construction industry appears to have fallen to its lowest level in 18 years. Although turnover for mining and processing plants has once again returned to its path of upward growth.
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Where in the Debt Cycle?

In several recent postings, I have given you an overview of where Australia’s economy currently sits within the overall global scene.

The Worm Turns

The Worm Turns

Well the other day, I came across this really neat chart … as part of an article within the Financial Review.
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Global Progress?

The IMF has recently trimmed its overall global forecast — down to 4.2% from 4.3%, for 2011.

Global GrowthThe emerging and developing economies are tipped to grow by 6.4% (with China’s growth being over 9%).

Whereas, the various advanced economies are expected to grow by a subdued 2.2%, on average.

However, any double-dip recession is considered most unlikely — as investment and domestic consumption has replaced the building up of inventories.

According to the IMF: “Investment in machinery and equipment is already showing strength in a number of advanced economies.”

Nonetheless, spending and investment in most advanced economies will be constrained by households replenishing their savings; and banks remaining reluctant to lend freely to businesses. Plus, the US housing market still languishes.

Overall, the lack of business investment (and therefore employment growth) will adversely impact on tax revenues. And thereby, make government debt reduction programs a slow process.

On all counts, Australia will continue to enjoy solid growth — relative to other advanced economies. And this will provide ongoing pressure for interest rates to rise, over the next three years.

All the more reason to lock in your interest rates long-term … for any Commercial property investments you intend to make.

Will Australia’s Growth
Remain Strong?

Pick up any newspaper, and you’ll find most commentators saying the Resources boom is back on once again.

Also, people are pointing to China as our guiding light going forward.

But is this really true? And if so, why?

Here’s a short Video giving you a quick insight into whether there really is any substance to what we’re being told.
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When Should You
Fix Your Interest Rate?

On Wednesday, I put up this post about whether or not to fix your interest rate, when purchasing a Commercial property. Only to find there was a problem with streaming of the Video.

Hopefully, that’s now been resolved; and so let’s try Take 2.

The simple answer to the question of timing is … when most Investors are not giving it much thought.

Like right now!

Anyway, here’s a short Video to explain my logic for saying this. Hopefully, it will give you a “helicopter view” of where things will head, over the next 5 years. [Read more…]

“Doing Nothing Will Cost You!”

Whenever Investors are confused … the Property Market tends to do nothing and simply moves sideways.

Confusion Reigns

Confusion Reigns


You observed that when the GFC first struck.

People simply put their buying decisions ‘on hold’. And then, frantically played catch-up over the last 12 months … as soon as they realised things were still okay here in Australia.

Over that period, you have seen most Commercial markets around the country showing good growth — particularly in Melbourne.
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