“Cycles Ain’t Cycles”

Overall, Australia has sailed through the Global Financial Crisis more or less unscathed. And from all accounts, Victoria and enjoys the standout economy of all the States.

The Traditional Cycle Has Been Interrupted

Last week, you explored the traditional cycle for CBD Offices — being 18 years from peak to peak. And over that same period, Retail and Industrial properties tend to go through several cycles.

Commercial Property Cycles

However, given Australia’s privileged position within the global scene … my view is you are now at the upswing in the cycle for the Office market. In other words, you are already at the halfway point in the traditional Cycle.
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Some Gloom … Yet More Glee!

The US Federal Reserve is concerned that consumption is still being underpinned by government funding.

US Interest RatesAnd so, even though stimulus measures may be winding down … the Fed has decided to maintain interest rates at their historically low level.

It seems that households and businesses are preferring to repay debt, rather than spend to encourage investment and growth.

In Europe, there is still simply not enough trust between Banks to lend to one another. And that means credit is extremely tight. Right now, Central Banks are stepping in to lend to private banks, in an attempt to free up funds to boost economic activity.

China still remains the bright light with its growing demand for of the commodities Australia exports.

The IMF actually predicts that the Asian economy (which includes Australia) will be 50% larger within five years.

And it will then represent about a third of the world’s trading activity.

h2. The Implications for Commercial Property

Foreign BuyersAlready, major Asian sovereign wealth funds and property trusts are starting to target Office towers within Australian capital cities.

In fact, foreign buyers have invested around $1.7 billion during the past 12 months — representing about 70% of the purchase is made.

While this won’t directly affect the smaller private buyer … it will force everyone to move down a price bracket ought to — looking for better value.

Therefore, as yields quickly firm at the upper levels … this will soon have a ripple effect down through more modestly priced Commercial investment property.

Couple this with rising rentals, as the supply of Office space starts to fall around Australia … and now would be the perfect time to position yourself, ready for the next growth cycle.

Distortion Guaranteed?

While the Rudd government may have moved quickly to provide guarantees for the major Banks during a financial turmoil … the impact of doing so has been disastrous for borrowers.

Right now, these major Banks seem to account for virtually 80% of all owner-occupier loans for property.

As such, the margins they are charging have never been higher — despite the Banks’ protestations of being “squeezed”.

RBA's Dilemma

RBA's Dilemma


Therefore, overall borrowings borrowings have been slowly trending downward over the past six months — because the major Banks have effectively amplified the rate increases handed down by the RBA.
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Is Negative Gearing for You?

Buying and negatively gearing a Commercial investment property is not forever in one — particularly, with interest rates on the rise.

And if you already have high personal debt … adding to that wouldn’t be a smart move on your part.

Make Borrowing just one of your Tools

Negative Gearing

Negative Gearing

Any gearing you decide to take on, should be viewed as part of your overall strategy — and not there simply to minimise your tax bill.
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Interest Rate Rises …
Are they a Good Sign?

The RBA’s decision on interest rates yesterday came about because of what’s happening here in Australia, rather than in Europe.

It has been made against the backdrop of our exporters having recently extracted massive price hikes for iron or in coal, as a result of China’s strong growth.

Since the global turmoil started in 2008, the $A has climbed by nearly 55% against the $US — and just over 40% against our other key trading partners.

RBA Logic

RBA Logic

This has more or less offset the rise in Australia’s local retail prices, through a sharp decline in the cost of imported items — like electrical goods, clothing, footwear and furniture.

As a result, the NAB’s business confidence index stands firmly positive for the third consecutive quarter. And even more importantly, actually improved throughout the last quarter.

h2. How will this affect Commercial Property?
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Retail Returns to Favour

Retail property has had some press coverage of late.

It has shown a surprising improvement, given global events and the hike in interest rates.

Westfield (a good retail barometer) reported a strong mid-year result from its Australian shopping centres.

RetailMar2010As you can see from the table, Vacancy rates have fallen significantly and Yields firmed — particularly within the strip shopping centres of Melbourne.

And furthermore, rentals have also started to climb … as the economic recovery has given shoppers confidence to start spending again.

Currently yields ranging between 4% and 6.5% across these various strip centres. And would indicate that investors are returning to retail property once more.

If you are planning to acquire some Retail property, you need …

    1. A strong tenant (well-established, or proven backing);
    2. A long lease (5 years+); and also
    3. Solid rental reviews (CPI or at least 3.75% pa).

With these in place, you should be able enjoy a good long-term investment.

From here on …
Back to a 2-Speed Economy?

The latest figures show unemployment crept up from 5.2% to 5.3% last month — probably due to school leavers. However, the total number of hours worked actually jumped by 2.4% during February.

2-Speed Economy

2-Speed Economy

With predictions of a 60% surge in commodity prices from next month’s contract re-negotiations, this will put further strain upon the labour and capital resources of both New South Wales and Victoria.
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CBD Offices on the Move

Westpac has just released an Australia-wide outlook for Commercial property. And it predicts you will start to see growth in rents and values during 2010-11.

Two Cities

Two Cities

As employment numbers grow with the improved economy, demand for Office space will also take off again.
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Election Year Blues?

It’s not just rising interest rates that the Rudd government will have to contend with, in the run-up to the next election.

The joy of the resources boom restarting brings with it certain unwanted side effects. What you will start to see is wage rate increases; plus the drawing away of materials and equipment, from other sectors within our economy.

Our Exporters

Our Exporters


Furthermore, the stronger Australian dollar will bring increased hardship to our tourism and manufacturing industries — who exported goods and services internationally.

Not to mention, our local businesses … who are finding it harder and harder to compete with cheaper imports.

China

China

Clearly, Australia doesn’t want to miss out on the extraordinary growth occurring in both China and India.

However, the real test of the government will be in how it oversees the insatiable demand for labour and capital by the mining sector — while not starving the rest of the economy of these same key business imports.

With the voice of trade unions becoming louder, the temptation for Rudd is to resort to government subsidies. But sadly, it is often the most vocal (rather than the most deserving) who seemed to benefit from these type of handouts.

Maybe the preferred option would be to allow the “fittest” to survive; and thereby cause of Australia’s overall productivity to rise in the process?

But then, it is an election year!

Nonetheless, the continued stronger demand bodes well for Commercial property during 2010 and beyond.

Was the RBA Asleep at the Wheel?

In fact, the RBA has been cautious … NOT asleep!

Last week, we covered the statistical anomaly relating to Australia’s low unemployment figure. And that may well have influenced the RBA in holding rates steady last month.

Although, the patchy spending in December and January probably coloured their thinking as well.

Bursting Bubbles

Bursting Bubbles


Nonetheless, you continue to see a surge in home values; and headline inflation is now starting to creep up again. [Read more…]

"Statistics Never Lie, or Do They?"

There are some interesting outcomes emerging from a wash-up of the recent financial turmoil.

Australia has fared best among the Western countries, with its unemployment rate at only 5.3% and falling. But does this now mean you’ll start to see wage pressures emerging?
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