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Current Opportunities Within The Commercial Property Market

The "Emotional Cycle" suggests an upturn in activityCONTRARY TO THE VIEW of many pundits, it’s certainly not all gloom and doom out there.

The share market may well have been moving sideways within a 4000 to 5000 band, since 2009.

Plus, the two-speed economy only seems to be benefiting the miners and those within the service industries. And unfortunately, increased savings levels are frustrating the retailers no end.

However, my view remains that Australians are now poised ready to come off the bottom of the “Emotional Cycle” — armed with a level of savings seldom seen in previous upturns. [Read more…]

Commercial Property and The Current Economy

These are Better Indicators of our Economic Well-beingLAST WEEK, we explored just how the misuse of statistics by some commentators was distorting of the truth about Australia’s economic well-being, on a state-by-state basis.

So it is with several other indicators, as David Bassanese pointed out in a recent article (AFR: 22 March, page 36).

Many commentators are pushing for interest rates reductions, because the “economy is soft”. And they list … [Read more…]

Commercial Property: The Changing Retail Scene

<span class=THERE WAS an article in The Age last Saturday (BusinessDay) — which provided some fascinating insights into Australia’s retail scene.

Based upon GPT’s national portfolio, some interesting long-term trends are taking shape. And while GPT’s overall earnings actually rose by 7% over the past year … it required a fair amount of “fancy footwork” to achieve that. [Read more…]

What Will Happen to Interest Rates
When The RBA Meets Next Week?

THE GENERAL consensus seems to be that the RBA will further reduce rates by 25 basis points. But can this view be fully justified; and what does all this mean for Commercial property investors?

The RBA faces a real DilemmaMost pundits would point to the recent CPI figures and say “Yes”! And on the surface, an underlying inflation rate of 2.5% per annum is plumb in the middle of the RBA’s stated target zone.

Yet despite what seems to be a rather hesitant mood by consumers, inflation in the service sector actually surged by massive 4.4% per annum. And some other sectors (not affected by overseas competition) also finished the year strongly, growing by 3.9% per annum. [Read more…]

Commercial Property Poised to Take Off in 2012

ALL YOU need is a sprinkling of confidence … with an understanding that things are not as bad as you read in many newspapers.

For some time now, I have been trying to explain how the underlying fundamentals for Australia’s economy and Commercial property are strong.

And a recent AFR headline Recruitment boom bucks the trend (9 Dec 2011, page 41) now confirms that our major law firms are “in the midst of a hiring spree”.

Purely a Matter of ConfidenceHowever, if you still need some more convincing of Australia’s well-being, just take a look at these two graphs. [Read more…]

Retailing Isn’t Totally Dead …
It Has Simply Changed

The Winery by Gazebo an Crown Street, Surry HillsIn last week’s article, you read a general overview of the Retail sector … and some of the issues currently confronting traders.

Let’s now take a quick look at three of the capital cities. [Read more…]

Commercial Property & The Economy

The IMF has just given Australia the thumbs upLast week, to the IMF gave the Australian economy a positive report card — with a projected growth of 1.8% for 2011, and 3.3% for the ensuing 12 months.

Clearly there is international concern about the state of affairs within Europe and the US.

However, that belies the positive impact being provided by the rest of the world.

Although China’s growth is slowing, it still remains at a healthy 9% per annum; and India is not too far behind at 7.5% per annum.

When you add to that Latin America at 4%, and parts of Africa at close to 6% … you then start to see the northern Atlantic problems in some perspective. [Read more…]

The Spectre of
Rising Interest Rates

Interest rates still to rise
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is not seeing the Australian flood disasters as having a prolonged effect upon the national economy.

It certainly expects the March quarter GDP to decline by 0.5%. But it is then projecting a 4.25% surge, over the remainder of this year. [Read more…]

Retail Property Facing Challenges

Retail challenges.


Having weathered the recent rate increases, consumer confidence seems to have risen just a measly 0.3% during November — according to the latest Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index.

Households still appear to prefer paying down debt, rather than spending — with Australia’s saving level hovering around a record 10.5% of its disposable income.
[Read more…]

Why November?

Most people seemed taken by surprise, when the RBA chose to raise the cash rate to 4.75% on Cup Day this week.

However, with Oaks Day being held yesterday, I thought today would be better timing for this post.

Price Pressures

Price Pressures

Sure, the September quarter CPI had fallen to within the RBA’s target range. And yes, there is still some uncertainty overseas.

However, with industry facing capacity constraints and the mining boom heading towards previous levels … inflation is poised to accelerate during the December quarter, as wages start to rise.
[Read more…]

Australian Commercial Property is Runnning Its Own Race

Unlike the US and Europe, Australia has not suffered a banking crisis. Therefore, our banking system is still capable of providing credit for normal growth.

With the US unemployment rate approaching 10%, this will delay any quick turnaround for the Commercial property sector.

Decoupling from the US

Decoupling from the US

As you would expect, there is a strong correlation between high unemployment, tenancy contractions and falling commercial property prices. And as a result, a reluctance by banks to provide credit.
[Read more…]