How to Conduct In-depth Investment Analysis?

WHEN IT COMES to in-depth analysis of Commercial properties, it is obviously far more complicated than a simple rating system.

That’s because you actually need a sophisticated piece of software – of which there is a number out in the marketplace.

But you’ll find most of them seem overly complicated … are not very user-friendly … and tend to generate endless pages of output data.

There are about 20 Key Items involved.

So, let’s quickly run through these various items.

You have the purchase price, stamp duty and acquisition costs (things like your due diligence) all of which need to be included.

You also need to choose your loan-to-value ratio (LVR) and include any costs associated with the mortgage. Plus, your appropriate level of tax, which may vary – depending upon whether the “purchase vehicle” is an individual, a company, a unit trust or your super fund.

You must take into account the passing rental, the rental reviews, the un-recouped outgoings, ongoing management fees, and depreciation. Plus, you have to decide on the holding period and estimated selling yield down the track – which I will come back to in a moment.

Finally, you need to allow for the selling costs at that time; and also the capital gains tax – where you need to include things like your initial cost-base.

Without going into the intricacies of the specific software, what’s important is that you undertake your calculations within a fixed timeframe. And I generally tend to view everything over a 4-year period.

A lot of software packages like to stretch their calculations over 8-10 years. However, there are two problems with doing this:

  1. You can’t make accurate estimates that far out, but more importantly …
  2. It spreads your acquisition costs (stamp duty, legal fees, etc) and your selling costs (commission, advertising and legals) over a much longer period.

And that tends to distort reality and make everything look unrealistically attractive.

Instead, you should stick to 4 years – because, if the property does not make sense over 4 years … then you are simply kidding yourself to view it over 10 years – in the hope of making a reasonable return.

As such, my yardstick is an after-tax return of 10% per annum (or better) on your equity, over a 4-year period. Otherwise, you simply don’t proceed with that property.

As you will appreciate, many people might well say: “But I am buying it for the long haul”. And that’s okay.

Why the Short Timeframe?

My reason for four years (and there’s no real magic here) … other than over that period, people can have a change of circumstances. They’ll get married, divorced, posted interstate or overseas – even have kids.

Somehow, there will often be a change in personal circumstances. Therefore, whether you plan to, or not … it is a good idea to have a mandatory 4-year review. That’s why I settled on this timeframe.

You may continue to hold the property longer-term, and that’s fine. But you need to know going into the deal that if (for whatever reason) you find yourself having to sell the property in four years’ time … it is still going to make economic sense. And over the longer term, it makes it a very good deal going forward.

To help with this, I developed my Final Judgement software – which is made available to everyone in my Mentor group. And by using this software, you can calculate what (in technical terms) is called the internal rate of return.

In other words, what annual return will the projected after-tax cash flow represent … as an annual percentage on the equity you invest in the property.

Being “after-tax” is important because that takes account of your relative tax position. And if you have negative gearing, that’s taken into account as well.

Bottom Line: If you are getting a 10% pa or better after-tax … this represents anywhere from 14% to 18% per annum pre-tax … depending on your tax level.

And I wouldn’t have thought that was too shabby.

Why Choose Commercial Property Over Residential?

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Commercial

OBVIOUSLY, THIS IS the question every residential investor asks … whenever they are considering the transition across to Commercial property.

However, you will quickly discover the reasons are rather compelling. [Read more…]

Does a Solid Sales Increase in February Mean the Retail Sector is Now Back?

Strip Centres are still strugglingYOU WILL quickly find that there are two different schools of thought:

  1. After much hibernation, Retail property is set to surge again.
  2. With the high dollar, and growth in online shopping, the Retailing has much catching up to do.

Despite Australia having been mostly sheltered from the global financial crisis, retailers (especially in strip shopping centres) have been doing it rather tough.

Before the GFC, Retail property yields had plummeted. In some cases, as low as 3.5% per annum — with investors clamouring for what they saw as “sexy property”. And they believed values would always increased dramatically. [Read more…]

Commercial Property Investing: How to Uncover a Good Deal

Discovering a Good DealIT’S TRUE … every deal will always be different. But that does not mean you can’t use a series of simple measures, to help you sift the “wheat from the chaff”!

Only then, are those properties entitled to make it through to the next stage of detailed analysis.
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How to Quickly Shortlist Your Properties [Read more…]

Industrial Property Poised For Some Steady Growth

So far, most Industrial Building has been by cashed-up DevelopersBECAUSE banks have been reluctant to fund speculative development, very little new Industrial space has come onto the market over the past few years.

Demand on the other hand has remained fairly steady; and it’s now increasing.

And this will cause rentals to rise over the next few years — as there is only a modest amount of space in the pipeline. [Read more…]

Commercial Property: Making Sense of the Retail Sector

Retail Sales Grow with Government HandoutsTHERE HAS been much debate recently about the health of the Retail sector.

And needing to constantly have everything “on sale” has certainly shrunk everyone’s margins. But overall, sales volumes have languished as well.

Yet, maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel. The ABS just reported that retail sales increased by 1% during June; following a 0.8% rise in May. [Read more…]

Confirmation That Commercial Property is Trending Up

A-REITs are a good gauge to where Commercial Property is headingWHILE EVERYONE seems to agree that the residential market is currently moving sideways, investors often find it difficult to gauge how direct investment into Commercial property is really travelling.

However, perhaps the best gauge is to take a look at what the share market thinks about A-REITs (Australian Real Estate Investment Trusts).

Generally, these yields tend to operate at about 1.5% to 2% below direct investment into property. Nonetheless, they can be a great indicator of where the present trend is heading. [Read more…]

Your Timing Within The Commercial Property Cycle

The traditional Investment Clock for SharesIF YOU have invested in the share market, you would most likely be familiar with the so-called “Investment Clock” — which attempts to show how the economic cycle influences equities.

In essence, an over-heated economy is followed by rising interest rates and falling share prices. Then, as the economy declines interest rates start to fall and share prices rise again.

Some analysts have tried to devise a similar “clock” for Commercial property. But unfortunately, the results have generally not been useful. [Read more…]

Several Short-Term Strategies For Commercial Property

Clever improvements can bring Quick ProfitsCOMMERCIAL properties are mainly a longer-term investment, bought for their regular high yields — as well as for good capital growth over time.

Even so, an investor with some knowledge and experience can easily find properties able to be improved, and then on-sold for a quick capital gain. [Read more…]

Industrial Property Is Clearly Holding Its Own

Industrial Rentals set to rise, and Selling Yields will begin to firm.Vacancy rates for Industrial property have fallen dramatically over the past year — declining by 39% on average, across the country.

This is mainly the result of strong demand for warehousing, following the high Australian dollar.

Plus, there has only been a modest amount of new construction. And that means you should see rentals improve and selling yields start to firm. [Read more…]

Where Do Your Profits Come From With Commercial Property?

You need to anticipate your Tenant's needsAS AN INVESTOR in Commercial property, you need to fully appreciate where your profits actually come from.

In most cases, the key lies with your tenants … who provide you a steady stream of income.

So finding reliable tenants is crucial; which means understanding their needs, and providing them an suitable premises.

Therefore, it is essential that you continually anticipate exactly what your tenants are expecting. [Read more…]